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Bogleheads On Investing Podcast · bogleheads

Episode 64: Victor Haghani and James White, ”The Missing Billionaires”, host Rick Ferri

November 24, 2023·56 min·1 clip
Counterintuitive: The more confident you are in a high-return investment, the less of it you should own.
Two legendary hedge fund managers (Victor Haghani from LTCM, James White mathematician-turned-trader) explain their book The Missing Billionaires, which challenges conventional investing wisdom. The core insight: professional traders optimize for institutional goals that differ from personal wealth management. Their framework emphasizes investment sizing (how much to invest) as equally important as asset selection. Counterintuitively, the more confident you are in a high-return investment, the less of it you should own—because you're already wealthier by expected value. They also explore why active investing persists despite 100 years of data showing indexing dominates: human nature drives us to believe we're above average, even when math proves otherwise.

As heard by us

A disciplined book discussion that treats investing as a set of decisions made under uncertainty.

Rick Ferry talks with Victor Hagoni and James White about The Missing Billionaires, A Guide to Better Financial Decisions, and the episode works best when it questions familiar investing slogans instead of repeating them.

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Why you'd press play

A Bogleheads on Investing interview on fixed allocation, expected returns, and decisions under uncertainty.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →
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