Bogleheads On Investing Podcast · bogleheads

Episode 86, Joe Davis, Vanguard Global Chief Economist and author of "Coming Into View", host Rick Ferri

·1 hr·4 clips

Joe Davis says the risk is in equities, not bonds, if AI disappoints and deficits dominate.

Rick Ferry opens with a tribute to Jonathan Clements and a few announcements. He then welcomes Joe Davis back to discuss Coming Into View, Joe's new book about how AI and other megatrends may shape investments. The tone is deliberate throughout. Ferry treats the book as a practical look at what investors should actually pay attention to, and Davis answers in the same measured style, keeping the conversation close to evidence rather than hype. AI comes first. Davis says he has a very optimistic economic view of AI in the asset management industry, but he is still waiting for the new medical drug people hope AI will help produce. That keeps the discussion grounded in outcomes, not slogans. Globalization follows. Davis addresses the perception in the United States that the world is de-globalizing and that this must be bad for trade and tariffs, and he argues the picture is more complicated than that. Trade gets demystified. He says economists have done a poor job explaining the winners, the losers, and the permanent job losses that can come with free trade, even though free trade is generally beneficial for higher growth and lower inflation when the playing field is level. Politics stays in the background. Davis notes that these issues have been politicized across many countries, and he argues that evidence should still lead the way. Automation matters too. He says most manufacturing job loss in the United States has come from automation rather than free trade, citing academic research. Tariffs are not magic. He says they can create winners and losers and bring in greater fiscal revenue for the U.S., but the larger question remains what investors should believe when policy, technology, and market narratives collide.

As heard by us

A measured look at AI, globalization, and the investment assumptions behind both.

Joe Davis uses his new book to talk through AI, globalization, and the habit investors have of pricing the future too early. Rick Ferry keeps the conversation moving in a steady line, which suits the material.

Read the full review in PlayNext →

Why you'd press play

You want a sober tour of AI, globalization, and how they could shape your investments.

Read the full recommendation in PlayNext →

Listen to the show on

Apple Podcasts Spotify

Play clips from this episode More from Bogleheads On Investing Podcast