Ceasefire in Iran

·32 min·3 clips

Mark Leonard witnesses President Trump threaten to destroy a civilization, then scramble to make sense of a Pakistan-negotiated peace deal with Iran.

Mark Leonard introduces the episode from Washington, DC, noting President Trump's volatile statements on Iran and a Pakistan-negotiated ceasefire. Guest Asla Aydin-Tashbash, a Senior Associate Fellow at ECFR and Brookings Institution, joins to dissect the situation. She explains the ceasefire announced Tuesday afternoon, with terms still ambiguous after 24 hours, focusing on three unresolved issues: Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's nuclear capabilities. Asla details how Trump initially included Lebanon in the ceasefire, as stated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, but walked it back after a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leading to resumed hostilities in Beirut. She describes the Strait of Hormuz now controlled by Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a tollbooth, with ships paying in stablecoin, a shift from pre-war free navigation. On the nuclear front, Asla suspects the deal involves Iran giving up highly enriched uranium, possibly buried under Natanz, but Trump's insistence on zero enrichment creates a sticking point. The discussion turns to Trump's 'upside down diplomacy,' announcing victory before details, which worked in Gaza but fails here due to global stakes. Leonard raises transatlantic tensions, citing Trump's attacks on European allies and threats to leave NATO. Asla notes Trump may escalate NATO withdrawal threats if the Iran war falters, though legal barriers exist, and he could de facto undermine NATO by reducing U.S. involvement. She suggests involving Turkish President Erdogan to mediate, given his rapport with Trump. The episode concludes with a bookshelf segment where Asla recommends Kiran Desai's 'The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny' and Arundhati Roy's memoir for escapism. Leonard signs off, directing listeners to ECFR's website for further resources.

As heard by us

A steady look at ceasefire politics, Israel, and Hormuz as a contest over leverage.

Ceasefire in Iran treats a fragile diplomatic turn as a test of pressure, leverage, and restraint. Mark Leonard guides Asla Aydin-Tashbash through the moving parts: White House threats, Pakistan's role between Tehran and the American administration, and the strain those choices…

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Why you'd press play

Want the ceasefire sorted through White House whiplash, Pakistan's diplomacy, and Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz?

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