Host Sabri Beneshour opens by noting that markets have been reacting sharply to contradictory signals about U.S.-Iran relations. When Trump suggested peace talks were underway, markets rallied and oil prices fell; when Iran denied any talks, markets reversed. Iran has since rejected Trump's recent proposal. Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank in London, explains that markets are now caught between Trump's optimism and Iran's defiance, with stock futures in the red. She warns that a five-day deadline Trump announced is approaching, and if Iran shows no willingness to negotiate, investor anxiety about weekend risk will likely grow. On the dollar, Foley says it has continued to strengthen against major currencies because of its deeply embedded role in global supply chains and payment systems, making it the safe-haven currency of choice. She addresses the apparent contradiction of a stronger dollar alongside rising bond yields by explaining that investors are prioritizing liquidity, moving into short-term money market assets they can exit quickly. The episode then shifts to a proposed 1% excise tax on cash remittances in the U.S. Nara Sretharan, a research analyst at AidData at William and Mary, explains that while 1% sounds small, it is added on top of the existing average transfer cost of 5.8%, bringing the total to roughly 6.8% — a 17% increase in the actual cost of sending money. She notes that remittances are used not just by migrants but by a wide range of Americans, businesses, and financial institutions. Sretharan outlines likely behavioral responses: some senders will switch to digital transfers to avoid the tax, since it only applies to cash. Others, particularly migrants, may cut their own U.S. spending to maintain the same remittance amounts, since those payments are often non-discretionary obligations. Some may move into informal, unregulated channels. On the stated rationale of curbing illicit activity, Sretharan argues there are more effective alternatives. She cites the U.N.'s 2015 sustainable development goal of reducing remittance transaction costs to 3%, noting that lower costs naturally draw people into formal channels. She also suggests a tiered fee system targeting only very large transactions, and expanding financial inclusion in recipient countries where banking access is limited. The episode closes with a brief note that Trump plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, his first trip to China in eight years.
