Podcasty Aktuality.sk · Ringier Slovakia Media s.r.o.

Transparentnosť, či bič na agentúry? Návrh SNS o politických prieskumoch vyvoláva skôr obavy, tvrdí Hankovský z IPSOS (videopodcast)

April 7, 2026·47 min·3 clips

An Ipsos executive says political polling is a 'total failure' financially but crucial for public information.

1. Podcasty Aktuality.sk hosts a debate on the SNS-drafted law regulating political survey agencies in Slovakia. 2. Guest Jakub Hankovský is a researcher at Ipsos Slovakia and vice-president of SAVA, the Slovak Association of Research Agencies. 3. The episode's core question is whether the proposed law increases transparency or creates mechanisms to suppress independent polling through sanctions and state oversight. 4. Host Barborák opens by quoting André Danko's public claim that Ipsos and NMS 'depute us' by giving SNS only 2.4% when he says the real support is 10-12%. 5. Hankovský responds that in the last pre-election model, Ipsos measured SNS at 5.7% and the official election result was 5.63%, calling this a 'confirmation of the rule.' 6. He explains the confidence interval: a published result of 2.4% for SNS means the true population value is between 2.0% and 2.8% with 95% probability. 7. Hankovský notes that Ipsos operates in 90 countries and conducted a highly accurate exit poll in Poland's recent elections, framing manipulation as incompatible with global reputational stakes. 8. The proposed law would require agencies to report research to the Statistical Board — including unpublished internal surveys commissioned by political parties — within 30 days of data collection. 9. Hankovský identifies this as the most dangerous provision: the state authority would gain access to the questionnaires of private political party research, exposing business secrets and campaign strategy. 10. He distinguishes between publicly commissioned surveys (done monthly, economically marginal at roughly 100,000 euros of Ipsos Slovakia's 3 million euro turnover) and private party research, arguing both would be swept into the same regulatory net. 11. ESOMAR's 2023 global survey found that only 15% of countries prohibit political polling outright, mostly in Central and North Africa and parts of Asia — and Slovakia would approach that category under a strict reading of the draft. 12. Hankovský argues the most effective part of the proposal is targeting fake surveys on social media, citing a Facebook post with fabricated figures showing Smer at 40% and Slovakia at 3%, with a supposed sample of 3,500. 13. The proposed sanctions of up to 20,000 euros for misrepresenting polling cross-sections risk triggering autocensorship — agencies and media publishers may simply stop commissioning political research to avoid liability. 14. Hankovský reveals the Hungary precedent: Ipsos no longer conducts voter preference research there at all, publicly or privately, because media and research independence has collapsed. 15. On moratoriums, he notes Slovakia had a 14-day ban until 2014, then a proposed 50-day ban from SNS in 2018-2019 that was later struck down, and currently operates at a 2-day moratorium in line with most European countries. 16. He argues that extending Slovak jurisdiction to foreign survey publishers — intended to prevent Czech or English-language workarounds — is likely incompatible with EU law and will be practically unenforceable. 17. The tone is measured and technical, with Hankovský frequently citing specific percentages and legal precedents; host Barborák presses with pointed questions about agency independence and business conflicts of interest. 18. Hankovský is challenged on whether his simultaneous role as a pollster for political parties and an independent public pollster creates a conflict; he denies any tension, arguing methodology is identical regardless of client. 19. Listeners interested in media freedom, electoral data integrity, polling methodology, or Slovak political regulation will find this episode detailed and substantive. 20. Those seeking breaking news or political commentary rather than methodological and regulatory analysis may find the pace slow.

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