1/30/26 Gordon Hahn on the Impediments to Peace in Ukraine

·46 min·4 clips

Hahn reads Azov general Biletsky's own 2007 speech calling for a 'final crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen.'

1. Scott Horton interviews Gordon Hahn, author of Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the New Cold War, about the state of Russia-Ukraine peace talks and Ukraine's internal politics. 2. Horton says he drew heavily on Hahn's research for his own book Provoked, and the two discuss the war's diplomatic and military details from a position of long familiarity. 3. The episode's core question is whether the current round of talks, including an energy truce through February 1st, can lead anywhere given the military and political pressures on both sides. 4. Hahn explains Ukraine likely proposed the energy truce because Russian strikes had left many Ukrainian cities without electricity for days at a time, threatening to knock out the grid for a year. 5. He notes a New York Times report that Russian negotiators apologized for a strike that killed civilians on a train near Odessa during discussions over the truce. 6. On territory, Hahn says talk of a demilitarized zone in Donetsk Oblast is largely symbolic since Russia is simultaneously advancing faster in Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts than anywhere else on the front. 7. He describes Ukrainian battalions as manned at roughly 10% of their intended 500-person strength, with half of available troops untrained, citing a New York Times interview with a Ukrainian commander. 8. Hahn argues Zelensky is boxed in domestically because Ukrainian law treats territorial concessions as treason, and ultra-nationalist and neo-fascist factions oppose any compromise. 9. He profiles Andriy Biletsky, the Azov Corps general who organized the original Azov Battalion in 2014, noting Biletsky is now the sixth most popular politician in Ukraine and commands at least 20,000 soldiers. 10. Hahn reads from a 2007 speech in which Biletsky called for the white race to lead a 'final crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen,' which Hahn calls 'completely psychopathic' Nazi rhetoric. 11. Horton and Hahn discuss the possibility that Biletsky or a similar warlord could seize power in a 'rump' Ukrainian state if the army and economy collapse further. 12. Hahn says Western promises to help Ukraine 'reclaim every last inch' of territory, including Crimea, were never realistic since that would require direct NATO intervention nobody was willing to provide. 13. He warns Ukrainian ultra-nationalists already frame the West as having 'set them up,' a stab-in-the-back narrative Hahn compares to early Nazi rhetoric about the Treaty of Versailles. 14. Hahn notes Zelensky has himself hinted at tolerating attacks by Ukrainian exile groups in Europe if the West 'abandons' Ukraine, and that neo-fascist networks hold annual international conferences in Kyiv. 15. On security guarantees, Horton argues NATO and U.S. pledges are hollow because neither would actually deploy troops like the 82nd Airborne to defend Ukraine if Russia attacked again. 16. Hahn agrees the guarantees function as a tripwire trap meant to draw NATO into the war regardless of who violates a future ceasefire, which Russia will not accept. 17. The two also discuss a possible land-swap deal trading Russian-held pockets in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts for Ukrainian territory in Zaporozhye and Kherson, which Hahn says Russia would accept once the battlefield balance evens out. 18. The tone is a dense, fast-paced policy and history discussion between two people well acquainted with the material, interspersed with ads for Horton's books and coffee sponsor. 19. Listeners following Ukraine-Russia negotiations, territorial disputes, or the role of far-right factions in Ukrainian politics would get the most from this episode. 20. Listeners uncomfortable with detailed, unfiltered discussion of Nazi-linked rhetoric and battlefield casualty figures may want to skip this one.

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