10/3/25 Ted Snider on the Conditions Necessary for the War in Ukraine to End

·36 min·3 clips

Zelensky's team wrote movies for a living — and this is a very well-written script to pressure Putin.

1. Scott Horton Show - Just the Interviews features Scott Horton interviewing antiwar.com and Libertarian Institute writer Ted Snider about prospects for a Russia-Ukraine negotiated settlement and recent drone incursions into NATO airspace. 2. Snider, co-author with Nikolai Petro of a recent piece on Ukraine-Russia compromise, argues both sides could reach a deal built on legally binding guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and recognition of Russian control over Donbas. 3. The episode's core thesis is that the war could have ended on the same terms at almost any point since it began, but continued Western pressure on Ukraine to keep fighting only costs Ukraine more soldiers and territory. 4. Snider says Putin has signaled willingness to freeze the front line in Zaporozhye and Kherson while holding onto the Azov coast land bridge to Crimea, but will not give up Donbas at the negotiating table after taking it on the battlefield. 5. He argues Russia's core war aim was preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, not fighting NATO directly, making claims that Russia intends to attack NATO members illogical given that motive. 6. Snider disputes reports that the Trump administration now believes Ukraine can retake all its 1991 borders, saying every military analyst he has read or spoken with agrees Ukraine cannot go on the offensive without a three-to-one manpower advantage it does not have. 7. He compares Ukraine's stretched, thinning front line to a bone with osteoporosis, growing more porous under Russian pressure until it eventually breaks, while Russia's recruitment numbers and weapons production are both increasing. 8. Snider argues promised Tomahawk missile transfers are largely symbolic: the U.S. has few to spare after using them against Iran, Ukraine lacks the ships or land platforms to launch them, and using them would require U.S. targeting intelligence that risks direct conflict with Russia. 9. He notes the missiles are nuclear-capable under a treaty Trump withdrew from during his first term, raising the danger that a nervous radar operator could misjudge an incoming Tomahawk as nuclear-armed. 10. Snider theorizes that Zelensky and advisers with backgrounds writing and producing films and television may be running a deliberate narrative, using drone incidents and alarmed European neighbors to manufacture pressure on Putin to return to negotiations. 11. He says Putin is not swayed by this narrative because he is confident Russia's economy, manpower, and weapons production will outlast Ukraine's in a prolonged war. 12. Snider says Ukraine is spending roughly 34% of GDP on the war and around $170 million a day, while Russia spends about 5% of GDP and is actually cutting its planned 2026 war budget. 13. He argues Western sanctions have not isolated Russia economically, noting India and China continue buying Russian oil and gas and Russia remains the world's 11th-largest economy with strong projected growth. 14. Snider says Russia has closed its early-war weapons and manpower disadvantages, citing intelligence estimates that Ukraine's ballistic-missile shootdown rate against upgraded Russian missiles has fallen to around six percent. 15. Turning to the drone story, Snider breaks down four to five separate incidents: nineteen drones over Poland, several Russian jets over an uninhabited Estonian island, and one drone that briefly hovered over Romania. 16. He says the Polish army's commander confirmed Belarus called immediately to warn that the unarmed drones were off course and helped shoot them down, undercutting claims of a deliberate Russian attack on NATO airspace. 17. Snider says the Estonian incident involved jets flying over open Baltic Sea waters near an uninhabited island while roughly following their filed flight path, and calls Western media coverage of it 'hyperbolic.' 18. He concludes the incidents most likely reflect a mix of GPS jamming accidents and a possible signal from Russia warning Europe against sending troops into Ukraine. 19. Would appeal to listeners interested in detailed Russia-Ukraine war analysis, NATO airspace incidents, or antiwar foreign-policy commentary. 20. Likely to be skipped by listeners seeking a pro-Ukraine framing of the war or looking for concise headline news rather than long-form analysis.

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