Money for the Rest of Us · J. David Stein

Is Another Great Financial Crisis Coming? 5 Ways to Prepare

March 25, 2026·27 min·2 clips

Thomas Friedman argues a weakened Iran only needs one $20,000 drone per day from a vegetable truck to choke global oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Episode 553 begins with an email. Chris asks why the prior episode skipped the economy after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. David Stein says he hesitated. He had just finished a monthly strategy report for PLUS members and Asset Camp, had looked at what Iran could mean for markets, and wanted the story to go away before it became the next market problem. No such luck. Almost four weeks later, oil is still above 90 dollars per barrel, up 40 percent, so the consequences could last. The useful question is not whether someone can call the next great financial crisis in advance. It is what to do when the risk is messy and the signals do not line up neatly. The bond market gets the close read. Broad U.S. bonds have seen yields rise by about half a percentage point this month, while the aggregate market is down around 2 percent. Credit spreads are calmer. The extra yield on corporate bonds is up only about 10 basis points, and those spreads are still well below average. That split matters. Stein reads markets as more anxious about inflation and higher yields than about recession or corporate-credit stress. The Federal Reserve does not sound especially sure either. Powell says several policy members thought this would have been a reasonable meeting to skip quarterly projections because the outlook is so hard to pin down. The projections barely moved: slightly faster 2026 growth than in December, the same 4.4 percent unemployment rate, core PCE inflation at 2.7 percent, and a policy rate that mostly holds. Private credit is the part that still feels twitchy. Richard Bookstable worries that private lenders have filled the space left by traditional banks with less scrutiny and less reliable pricing.

As heard by us

A steady look at crisis risk and uncertainty.

David Stein turns a geopolitical shock into a practical market checkup, linking Iran, oil above 90%, and the possibility of another financial crisis in one measured episode.

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Why you'd press play

When you want to separate real stress from market noise.

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